EGYPT

As Egypt seeks to establish a new and representative political system after the fall of the Mubarak regime, the one helpful action the United States and Europe could take would be to ensure that Egypt's drama doesn't turn into desperate tragedy by ensuring its food supply.


Food shortages and rising prices were one of the underlying factors behind the explosions in Tunisia and Egypt, with demonstrators brandishing loaves of bread and complaining of the high price of staples like lentils. The increased costs of feeding Egypt, the world's leading importer of wheat, could topple the fledgling new government.

Other Arab and Islamic governments have been desperately buying up wheat on world markets. Algeria paid top price for 800,000 tons of wheat last month. Indonesia is buying 800,000 tons of rice. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Libya and Bangladesh are all scouring the world markets for more, spurring the United Nations' Food and Agricultural Organization appeal against panic buying that would "aggravate the situation."



With world food prices hitting highs this month, the situation is about to get a deal worse thanks to the latest report of what the official Xinhua news agency says is China's worst drought for 60 years. Xinhua added that Shandong Province, the heartland of Chinese grain production, was facing its worst drought in 200 years unless serious rains come this month.


Reports from witnesses say the land is so dry from Beijing south through the provinces of Hebei, Henan and Shandong to Jiangsu province and Shanghai that trees and houses are coated with dust -- the topsoil that has blown off the drought-parched farmland.


Almost 8 million hectares of winter wheat -- 42 percent of the total planted in the eight major producing provinces -- are affected by the drought, a statement Friday by Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu claims. China's President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao each visited the drought-stricken regions and each called for "all-out efforts" to cope with the water shortage.


"China's grain situation is critical to the rest of the world -- if they are forced to go out on the market to procure adequate supplies for their population, it could send huge shock waves through the world's grain markets," argues Robert S. Zeigler, director of the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines. "They can buy whatever they need to buy and they can outbid anyone."


That is the real concern for the threatened regimes of the Arab world. Once China with its massive sayings of almost $3 trillion in cash starts to hit world food markets, few other countries are likely to be able to afford to import the grain needed to fend of riots and even starvation. Hungry people have little patience and few options and if the United States and Europe want events in Egypt to unfold in an orderly and peaceful manner, food supplies may be the key.


Even without the drought in China, the world was already facing a food crisis. The drought and fires in Russia last year, followed by the devastating floods in Australia and Brazil, have pushed world food stocks dangerously low and driven prices to record highs -- with disturbing political implications.


"People often in developing countries spend half or three quarters of their income in food, so they've got little margin," World Bank President Robert Zoellick noted last week. "Egypt is a very big wheat importer, food prices have been going up, so while we're in a transition process we have to be trying to think of how to help the country get through to the next steps."


Governments around the world are reacting in different ways by buying stocks or by trying to force food prices down, as Israel did last week by cutting fuel and water taxes, or by passing new legislation. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said last week that his government was introducing a Right to Food Act to guarantee safety net for India's 400 million poorest people among whom malnutrition was particularly high.
U.S. Department of Agriculture data indicate the world's top wheat importers are Egypt, with almost 10 million tons a year, and Iran with 8 million tons. Algeria imports more than 5 million tons, Morocco imports 4 million tons and Nigeria and Turkey each import 3.5 million tons. So the vulnerability of Arab and Islamic countries to rising prices is particularly severe.


But China is the joker in the pack. Usually self-sufficient in food, China accounts for almost 20 percent of global wheat output, producing nearly twice as much wheat as the United States or Russia and more than five times as much as Australia. China also produces one-fifth of the world's corn, mostly in the northern provinces where the current drought is most acute.


The new concern is for China's rice crop, grown mostly in the south and highly vulnerable to drought. The signs are ominous, since the Hong Kong Observatory reports that the region received only half of its usual rainfall in December and only 22 percent of its usual rainfall in January.


As the world's largest importer of soybeans, mainly for animal feed, China already has a steep food import bill. And with more than 50 million tons of wheat stockpiled, about half the usual harvest, China has a cushion. And it can call on military resources to seed clouds to stimulate rain. But if this year's rice and corn harvests are disappointing, China may have to buy heavily on world markets, plunging Egypt, Morocco, Algeria and Iran into new crises.

OBAMA BUDGET 2012

 Barack Obama is sending Congress a $3.73 trillion spending blueprint that pledges $1.1 trillion in deficit savings over the next decade through spending cuts and tax increases.

Obama's new budget projects that the deficit for the current year will surge to an all-time high of $1.65 trillion. That reflects a sizable tax-cut agreement reached with Republicans in December. For 2012, the administration sees the imbalance declining to $1.1 trillion, giving the country a record four straight years of $1 trillion-plus deficits.

Jacob Lew, Obama's budget director, said that the president's spending proposal was a balanced package of spending cuts and "shared sacrifice" that would bring the deficits under control. Appearing on ABC's "Good Morning America," Lew said that Obama's budget would "stand the test that we live within our means and we invest in the future."

Senior administration officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity in advance of the formal release of the budget, said that Obama would achieve two-thirds of his projected $1.1 trillion in deficit savings through spending cuts including a five-year freeze on many domestic programs.

The other one-third of the savings would come from tax increases, including limiting tax deductions for high income taxpayers, a proposal Obama put forward last year only to have it rejected in Congress.
The Obama budget recommendation, which is certain to be changed by Congress, would spend $3.73 trillion in the 2012 budget year, which begins Oct. 1, a reduction of 2.4 percent from what Obama projects will be spent in the current budget year.

The Obama plan would fall far short of the $4 trillion in deficit cuts recommended in a December report by his blue-ribbon deficit commission. That panel said that real progress on the deficit cannot be made without tackling the government's big three entitlement programs — Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security — and defense spending.

Obama concentrated his cuts in the one-tenth of the budget that covers most domestic agencies, projecting $400 billion in savings from a five-year freeze in this area. Some programs would not just see spending frozen at 2010 spending levels but would be targeted for sizable cuts.

Republicans, who took control of the House in the November elections and picked up seats in the Senate in part because of voter anger over the soaring deficits, called Obama's efforts too timid. They want spending frozen at 2008 levels before efforts to fight a deep recession boosted spending in the past two years.

CHILDRENS EXERCISE

They hope the findings in 171 overweight 7- to 11-year-olds -- all sedentary when the study started -- gives educators the evidence they need to ensure that regular, vigorous physical activity is a part of every school day, said Dr. Catherine Davis, clinical health psychologist at GHSU's Georgia Prevention Institute and corresponding author on the study in Health Psychology.

"I hope these findings will help reestablish physical activity's important place in the schools in helping kids stay physically well and mentally sharp," Davis said. "For children to reach their potential, they need to be active."
To measure cognition, researchers used the Cognitive Assessment System and Woodcock-Johnson Tests of Achievement III that measure abilities such as planning and academic skills such as math and reading. A subset of the children received functional magnetic resonance imaging highlighting increased or decreased areas of brain activity.

MRIs showed those who exercised experienced increased brain activity in the prefrontal cortex -- an area associated with complex thinking, decision making and correct social behavior -- and decreased activity in an area of the brain that sits behind it. The shift forward appears consistent with more rapidly developing cognitive skills, Davis said.

And the more they exercised, the better the result. Intelligence scores increased an average 3.8 points in those exercising 40 minutes per day after school for three months with a smaller benefit in those exercising 20 minutes daily.

Activity in the part of their brain responsible for so-called executive function also increased in children who exercised. "In kids you just don't know what impact you are going to have when you improve their ability to control their attention, to behave better in school, to make better choices," Davis notes. "Maybe they will be more likely to stay in school and out of trouble."

Similar improvements were seen in math skills; interestingly, no improvements were found in reading skill. Researchers note that improved math achievement was "remarkable" since no math lessons were given and suggests longer intervention could produce even better results.

Children in the exercise program played hard, with running games, hula hoops and jump ropes, raising their heart rates to 79 percent of maximum, which is considered vigorous.

Cognitive improvements likely resulted from the brain stimulation that came from movement rather than resulting cardiovascular improvements, such as increased blood and oxygen supplies, Davis said. "You cannot move your body without your brain."

The researchers hypothesize that such vigorous physical activity promotes development of brain systems that underlie cognition and behavior. Animal studies have shown that aerobic activity increases growth factors so the brain gets more blood vessels, more neurons and more connections between neurons. Studies in older adults have shown exercise benefits the brain and Davis's study extends the science to children and their ability to learn in school.